Accident data analysis (2023–2025): Key trends and insights

As winter approaches, many businesses experience a rise in workplace accidents. While this isn’t guaranteed, patterns from the past three years show that early preparation can make a meaningful difference. 

David Taylor, Citation’s Health & Safety Advice Manager, has analysed accident data from January 2023 to November 2025 to highlight the key trends employers need to know and the practical steps you can take to prepare for 2026. 

Monthly trends overview 

Seasonal patterns: 

Analysis of accident reports over the last three years reveals clear seasonal behaviours: 

• Early-year spike:
  Accidents consistently increase between January and March, with 2024 showing the steepest rise. Both January and February recorded over 120 incidents. 
• Summer dip:
  Accident numbers typically fall in July and August. Both July 2023 and July 2025 recorded the lowest monthly totals for those years. 
• Mixed trends at year-end:
  Accident counts for November–December vary. Some years show a slight increase, others a decrease, suggesting risk levels depend heavily on operational and environmental factors. 

Year-on-year comparison: 

• 2024 recorded the highest early-year accident volumes, surpassing both 2023 and 2025 in the first quarter. 
• This report includes data up to November 2025, so December figures are not yet available. 

Actionable insights for 2026 

January – March remains a reliably higher-risk period. Factors contributing to this include winter weather, post-holiday return-to-work patterns, unfamiliarity following time off, and operational pressures early in the year. 

In contrast, summertime generally brings fewer incidents, likely due to reduced activity, holidays, or more favourable conditions. 

Recommended actions to prepare for January 

To help reduce accidents during the highest-risk period of the year, you should consider the following steps: 

1. Refresh core safety training before the New Year 

Accidents spike in January partly because staff are returning after a break and may be out of routine. 

Provide refresher training on: 

• Key risk topics relevant to your activities 

• Current risk assessments and safe systems of work (SSoWs) 

• Task-specific toolbox talks 

• Winter-specific hazards (slips, trips and falls; cold weather; driving in adverse conditions)

2. Communicate key risks early 

Get ahead of January by raising awareness in December. 

• Share reminders about winter hazards (ice, darker days, cold conditions) 

• Revisit site-specific risks, especially for higher-risk roles 

• Encourage supervisors to run daily briefings for the first few weeks of January 

3. Carry out a winter-specific risk review 

January brings hazards that may not be present earlier in the year. 

• Grit walkways, car parks and delivery areas 

• Check lighting in outdoor and low-light spaces 

• Review emergency procedures, including lone working and adverse weather plans 

4. Tighten housekeeping and equipment checks 

Post-holiday periods can lead to clutter and neglected maintenance

• Ensure all workspaces, corridors and storage areas are clear 

• Complete pre-use machinery, tool and vehicle checks 

• Confirm PPE is available, and suitable

5. Increase active supervision and reporting 

Higher workloads and lapses in concentration contribute to early-year accidents and active supervision makes a significant difference. 

Supervisors should: 

• Regularly check that staff are following risk assessments and SSoWs 

• Correct unsafe behaviour early before habits form 

• Support newer, temporary or returning staff 

• Keep communication open and encourage immediate reporting of near-misses 

Combine this with effective monitoring to spot any emerging patterns, anomalies or gaps in control.

6. Review staffing and workload pressures 

Teams often return in January with reduced staffing levels or new starters. 

• Make sure you’re not overloading any roles, as increased pressure or rushing tasks can quickly lead to mistakes and accidents. 

• Provide extra support and supervision for temporary, new or returning staff 

7. Plan communications now 

Proactive communication can significantly reduce incidents in January. 

• Prepare posters, toolbox talks and email reminders for early January 

• Use our data to explain why Q1 is higher-risk 
• Promote a “start the year safely, not rushed” mindset

Predictive outlook for 2026

If patterns from 2023–2025 continue, January to March 2026 is likely to see the highest volume of accidents. Strengthening training, communication and winter controls now will have the greatest impact during this period. 

Ongoing monitoring and strong supervision remain key. The more closely you track your accident/incident data and oversee day-to-day practices, the better equipped you’ll be to spot emerging risks and respond before they escalate. 

Stay safe with Citation 

At Citation, we’re here to keep you up to date and supported, no matter your industry. If you’d like to find out more about how we can help, get in touch today on 0345 844 4848*. We hope you have a happy and safe New Year!  

*Applicable for all clients who’ve purchased Citation’s HR & Employment Law and/or Health & Safety core service, including H&S and HR Workplace Expert. Please note that our H&S and HR Virtual Assistance clients have access to our advice line Monday to Friday 9am-5pm.